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  • The Not-So-Smart Smart Money

    It should be fairly evident by now that heavy redemptions at hedge funds over the past two months contributed significantly to the recent pounding in the one area where markets are liquid – stocks. Moreover, the deleveraging process continues to impact many hedgies as available capital (for leveraged...
  • Krugman and El-Erian in the Valley of FUD

    In his excellent book, “When Markets Collide”, PIMCO chief Mohammed El-Erian writes about the journey and the destination that the global economy and markets are undergoing and puts in context and helps clarifies much of the current economic and financial chaos. In it, Mr. El-Erian describes...
  • Just How Bad Are Corporate Profits?

    Today's earnings report from Hewlett-Packard raises the question posed in this blog postings' title. To help shed some light on the subject, consider the corporate results produced thus far re 3Q08. Compiled each week from data published in the Wall Street Journal (and produced for subscribers...
  • Beyond the Sound Bite: My Interview on NPR

    The folks over at National Public Radio noticed my blog posting of yesterday re the credit markets, Treasury yields, LIBOR, and the TED spread and did an interview with me on the topic, which you can listen to by clicking on the following link. To listen to the 20 minute interview, click here . Note...
  • Even Buffett Isn't Perfect

    "The idea of financial panic -- that has been pretty much taken care of," Warren Buffett “Economy May Face Prolonged Pain, History Suggests” Greg Ip, Wall Street Journal Mr. Buffett may be technically correct but that won’t help investors who come to the mistaken conclusion...
  • Defining the Credit Crisis

    Since the credit crisis began, investors have been bombarded with acronyms and phrases that most had very little direct experience with. Since the credit crisis is far from over and has both real and financial economy affects (that will result in a transformation of the US economy in the years ahead...
  • VIX and the Premature Return to Complacency

    It could be argued that the recent rise in the medium and longer term US Treasury rates have something to do with concerns re inflation. It also could just as easily be argued that a major part of the rise is due to a lessening of the fear factor related to the credit crisis and an associated narrowing...
  • The Economic Guessing Game Has Begun

    In the past weeks, several clear signs have emerged signaling that investors are shifting their focus away from the credit crisis and toward the real economy and traditional investment analysis. The first and most obvious sign is the earnings reports. The next two are less obvious, but are no less important...
  • "We are in uncharted territory."

    excerpts from this week's report: Gary Crittenden Chief Financial Officer, Citigroup "For those who may be inclined to go along with the recent optimistic comments from the heads of several major investment banks (see last Thursday’s blog posting, “News Flash: Credit Crisis End in Sight”) and...
  • News Flash: Credit Crisis End in Sight!

    Bloomberg reports today that major money manager, Mark Mobius, has joined four financial titans (Jamie Dimon, JP Morgan Chase; Lloyd Blankfein, Goldman Sachs; John Mack, Morgan Stanley; and Richard Fuld, Lehman Bros.) in proclaiming that the end of the credit crisis is in sight. Such statements are astonishing...
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