Today’s longer range perspective or The Big Picture as I call it revolves around American politics. Although I detest politics here goes. It starts with the assumption that Senator Barack Obama from Illinois continues to garner a groundswell of American support and sweeps into office with a big winning margin. With such a lopsided win he’d really hold a mandate to change America. He would start by changing politics and Washington, D.C. By first off bringing all sides together, Republicans, Democrats and independents same as how he got such wide support in the election. The only way to get decisions made and made in the best interests of America is to get all sides into the negotiations. Sort of like how former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan (temporarily) fixed social security back in the 1980s. He had to bring the most vociferous critics from both the Democrats and Republicans and essentially lock them in a negotiating room until they all would sign off on identifying the problem and the proper, fair solution. Senator Obama tries not to disparage anyone, Democrats or Republicans or anyone. Instead he charms them, all of us. For example, recently on CNBC I saw Obama charm “Neutron Jack” Welch, the former head of General Electric who got rid of 100,000 employers during his term. (And who left GE with a retirement perk package you just wouldn’t believe; planes, box seats, etc.) Anyway Obama told Welch that America needs to learn from corporate leaders like him and Welch’s eyes brightened. So with Obama’s unique position and great timing he could become a very important American president. A president who actually institutes change in America for the better. Seems to me like the man with a plan, the right plan at the exact right time. Another example, he’d first off try to reduce corporate America’s outsized influence on Congressmen, by showing all votes on TV. So Americans could watch and judge their representative’s decisions, supposedly in our best interests. This would grease the way toward more participatory democracy rather than the failed representative democracy we now follow, as long range forecaster John Naisbitt predicted in his 1982 best seller book Megatrends, one of his only forecasts which so far has failed to come true. Even American business is now fed up with the current system, having to carry a major budget for lobbying efforts since their competitors have such. And after the recent US housing boom went bust, rippling outward over time into the subprime mortgage implosion, and billions of losses, more regulation of capitalism is the natural end result. The total deregulation trend of American business which began with President Reagan is winding up with the “bidness is bidness” president, President Bush II. This natural swing, just like in the stock market, is now reversing toward the opposite direction. Whom better than to lead American away from “unfettered capitalism” than Mr. Political Historian, nice guy and get along with everyone Obama who yearns for the politics of old, when cigars and dinner led to deals between the opposing parties. Yep, there was a time not too long ago when politicians were friendly, got along, not hating each other like today, and made deals in the best interest of America. Obama would bring a better balance to sharing America’s wealth instead of just letting the nature of the jungle rule. He would spend money on getting Americans educated, focusing on the job skills needed in today’s newly globalized world, encourage more kids to go into science and math, to acquire tech and computer skills, essentially to keep up with the rest of the world. And point America towards energy independence so as to win the war on terror, become fiscally sound, maintain the ecological integrity of the earth and respect the planet, leaving it at least how we found it. Plus he would lead America towards better relations with our historical allies. Obama with his charm, oratory, minority background, people skills and refusal to say bad things about others is exactly the sort of person to start a meaningful dialog once again. Over the last 30 to 40 years America has transitioned from a $65k middle class GM America to a $17k lower income working class Wal-Mart America and it’s time to swing the other way for the country’s good. Disillusioned Americans are now hearing and seeing Obama’s vision and are now coming out to vote in record number for big change. All we really need is to find some way to have the little guy be fairly represented once more. The way things have evolved, letting capitalism run unchecked while suffocating democracy, has eliminated all corporate statesmen, union power and regulatory authorities. Under Obama I see the years ahead as tough years but ones with much more satisfaction as more and more individuals and groups start believing the country is back moving on the right track again.
Under this scenario eventually the US dollar would strengthen. A strengthening dollar would be an indication that America was making a comeback. Using our underlying, fundamentally sound economic and social system correctly-- capitalism and democracy balanced and performing well together -- would strengthen the United State’s position in the new one global marketplace we now live in. We’d have a sounder America helping us establish a stronger position in the new Asian Century that’s already begun. Maybe we’d even surprise the historians who figure Asia taking over leadership is an accomplished fact!
Schwartz View: Of course, a zillion things can go wrong in the above scenario. I’m one for generally seeing the glass half full; don’t know what’s come over me making me. Guess its’ the olive branch being extended. But the above scenario does offers hope. Let’s just hope Obama doesn’t become the next Elliott Spitzer! Our new governor of New York swept into office with a record vote margin with the promise to change politics in New York and clean out the corruption but immediately got caught pushing the limits of the law and is now frozen into impotent inaction. By the very political entrenched corruption he set out to to eliminate! So Obama’s task ahead is huge. That’s why his laid-back, get-along personality is so important. He’s not going to try to be a “steamroller” like Spitzer. Much good luck to you Obama. It’s a long road ahead yet I see you as the perfect man coming along just at the right time for this important job.