Musing on the Markets

Insights into the key themes and trends impacting the economy and investment markets.

Musing on the Markets

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Beyond The Sound Bite

My Beyond The Sound Bite audio interviews are now available via Podcast on InvestorsInsight.com. Consume the feed here.

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Valuation Parameters for 2009

It is looking increasingly like a mid $60 operating earnings number will be the full year result for the S&P 500 for 2008. With the index trading in the upper 800 range, the current P/E is settling in around 13 times (874/$65 = 13.45). Since P/E ranges...

Published 12-30-2008 7:51 AM by Vinny Catalano, CFA

Filed under: Valuation
A Short-term Breather

A number of market technicians have pointed to the S&P 500 and its approach to its 50 day moving average (see accompanying chart). While such levels have a spotty predictive track record, it does seem likely that stocks are poised to take a breather...

Published 12-09-2008 6:57 AM by Vinny Catalano, CFA

Filed under: Technical Thursdays
Quotable Quotes: Dr. Doom (Nouriel Roubini) is 100% in Equities?!!

"I am not in the Armageddon camp". So states the one economist who got the current economic climate right for (more importantly) the right reasons. Given that fact, however, why is his personal money 100% in equities? To hear Dr. Roubini's...

Published 12-05-2008 6:32 AM by Vinny Catalano, CFA

Filed under: Quotable Quotes, Credit Crisis
Beyond the Sound Bite: An Interview with Dr. Rob Atkinson

I was able to catch the the president of the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation (www.itif.org) between his meetings with the Obama transition team for a most informative discussion that included his views on the importance of productivity...

Published 12-03-2008 7:15 AM by Vinny Catalano, CFA

Filed under: Geopolitics, Beyond the Sound Bite
Patience, The Lost Virtue

As the alternate universe of derivatives continues their great detoxification unwind, financial assets struggle to comprehend a world in transition to a new financial and economic order. In the process, fixed income markets remain frozen while equity...

Published 12-02-2008 12:09 PM by Vinny Catalano, CFA

Filed under: Credit Crisis, Valuation, Vinny Catalano, Credit Derivatives
Beyond the Sound Bite: An Interview with Phil Roth, CMT

My interview with the Chief Market Technical Analyst for Miller + Tabak includes the conditions necessary for a successful stock market bottom, the positive secular story for commodities (especially agriculture), attractive market action in water related...

Published 12-01-2008 8:33 PM by Vinny Catalano, CFA

Filed under: Beyond the Sound Bite, Technical Thursdays
The Not-So-Smart Smart Money

It should be fairly evident by now that heavy redemptions at hedge funds over the past two months contributed significantly to the recent pounding in the one area where markets are liquid – stocks. Moreover, the deleveraging process continues to...

Published 11-25-2008 7:40 PM by Vinny Catalano, CFA

Filed under: Credit Crisis, deleveraging, Valuation, Investment Strategy, Vinny Catalano
Krugman and El-Erian in the Valley of FUD

In his excellent book, “When Markets Collide”, PIMCO chief Mohammed El-Erian writes about the journey and the destination that the global economy and markets are undergoing and puts in context and helps clarifies much of the current economic...

Published 11-19-2008 6:43 AM by Vinny Catalano, CFA

Filed under: Credit Crisis, deleveraging, US Consumer, Vinny Catalano
Just How Bad Are Corporate Profits?

Today's earnings report from Hewlett-Packard raises the question posed in this blog postings' title. To help shed some light on the subject, consider the corporate results produced thus far re 3Q08. Compiled each week from data published in the...

Published 11-18-2008 10:02 AM by Vinny Catalano, CFA

Filed under: Credit Crisis, deleveraging, Vinny Catalano, S&P 500, Credit Derivatives
For Whom The Deep Oversold Bell Tolls (again)

Whatever the fundamental rationale may be – November 15th and hedge fund redemptions; capital gains sales in anticipation of tax increases next year; fears of a global recession; concerns re FAS 140 and QSPEs (more on this one in a future posting...

Published 11-12-2008 12:40 PM by Vinny Catalano, CFA

Filed under: Technical Thursdays, Vinny Catalano
Beyond the Sound Bite: An Interview with Sam Stovall

My conversation with Standard and Poors' Equity Research Chief Investment Strategist includes how stocks tend to perform when one party controls government, fourth quarter of an election year stock performance, first year of a new administration and...

Published 11-05-2008 11:47 AM by Vinny Catalano, CFA

Filed under: Beyond the Sound Bite, Investment Strategy, Vinny Catalano
An Overbought Pause

As delightful as the rally has been, a key super short-term technical indicator, Slow Stochastics, is registering an overbought reading (above 80) and a cause for a pause. As the accompanying chart* shows, while the near-term indicators, Momentum and...

Published 11-04-2008 8:05 AM by Vinny Catalano, CFA

Filed under: Technical Thursdays, Vinny Catalano
Look Out Above

Yesterday’s big stock market surge has some serious near term technical analysis legs under it. And the prospect of an attempt to rise to the S&P 500’s 50 moving average (just under 1100) looks achievable. Yet, there are also three non...

Published 10-29-2008 10:40 AM by Vinny Catalano, CFA

Filed under: Credit Crisis, Valuation, Investment Strategy
Sectors and Styles Strategy Report: October 27, 2008

excerpt from this week's report*: "The traditional method of fundamental analysis implies a market that is substantially undervalued. Even under a strong recessionary scenario of 12.5 times $72 (= 900), the current S&P 500 price produces...

Published 10-27-2008 9:34 AM by Vinny Catalano, CFA

Filed under: Valuation, Weekly Report
Quotable Quotes: Luna-cy

Blame it on the moon. If you are looking for a reason why the markets are in freefall, then the 1998 Charles Dow award winning paper has the answer. With the 28th day of the 7th lunar month occurring on Saturday, October 25th, a major selling climax is...

Published 10-24-2008 5:18 AM by Vinny Catalano, CFA

Filed under: Quotable Quotes

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Musing on the Markets

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Beyond The Sound Bite

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Valuation Parameters for 2009

A Short-term Breather

Quotable Quotes: Dr. Doom (Nouriel Roubini) is 100% in Equities?!!

Beyond the Sound Bite: An Interview with Dr. Rob Atkinson

Patience, The Lost Virtue

Beyond the Sound Bite: An Interview with Phil Roth, CMT

The Not-So-Smart Smart Money

Krugman and El-Erian in the Valley of FUD

Just How Bad Are Corporate Profits?

For Whom The Deep Oversold Bell Tolls (again)

Beyond the Sound Bite: An Interview with Sam Stovall

An Overbought Pause

Look Out Above

Sectors and Styles Strategy Report: October 27, 2008

Quotable Quotes: Luna-cy