Forecasts & Trends

IN THIS ISSUE:

1. The Inflation/Deflation Debate

2. Why Governments Love Inflation

3. Deflation – Beyond Lower Prices

4. The Shock Doctrine

5. What You Should Be Doing

Introduction

The non-partisan Congressional Budget Office (“CBO”) released a very troubling new report in the last week of July. The new report is entitled “Federal Debt and the Risk of a Fiscal Crisis” and warns that we will face financial calamity if we do not get our massive budget deficits under control.

The CBO report points out that the national debt, which was 36% of the gross domestic product three years ago, is now projected to be 62% of GDP at the end of fiscal year 2010 on September 30. And it continues to ratchet up every year thereafter, even in the CBO’s “baseline” (more conservative) projections.

The CBO specifically warns that our out-of-control deficits could lead to the ultimate debt crisis when buyers of Treasury securities lose faith in the government’s promise not to default on these most trusted financial instruments. No kidding!

I have been writing about the perils of increasing our national debt year after year since back in the 1980s when I criticized President Ronald Reagan for doing so, and every president since him. The concern was that in 20-30 years, the ultimate debt crisis would come. Guess what: it’s now been 20-30 years, and even the CBO now warns that the day of reckoning is on the horizon.

This week, I’ll summarize the latest CBO report. After reading about it, you need to think seriously about how you will protect your assets when the day comes where US Treasury securities are no longer trusted – think sharply higher interest rates! This will be a continuing theme in the weeks and months ahead.

But before we jump into the latest troubling CBO report, let’s take a quick look at the latest economic reports, most of which have not been favorable. It has been several weeks since I wrote about the economy specifically, so let’s get caught up.

The sweeping new financial regulatory bill was signed into law last Wednesday by President Obama. It will create a huge new government bureaucracy over the next year or so including 13 brand new federal agencies employing thousands of new government workers. The heads of these agencies will be appointed (not elected) by the president. These agencies will have the power to seize any companies that they deem to have 'systemic risk' and liquidate them if they so choose. One specific agency will have the right to demand any and all information from financial companies, including your personal account information, and it will have subpoena power over any firms that don't cooperate.

The vast new reform law does not solve the 'too-big-to-fail' problem; in fact, it institutionalizes it. Likewise, the new law does not at all address Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, both of which continue to lose billions every month. The reform law will create a new Bureau of Consumer Financial Protection, which will have the authority to write rules for consumer protections governing all financial institutions – banks and nonbanks – that offer consumer financial products or services. While some financial reforms are needed, this giant new bureaucracy will cost taxpayers and financial firms billions every year, and these costs will be passed down to their customers like you and me.

There is probably nothing we can do to stop this new law and replace it with something smaller and more focused, but I wanted you to know the facts about this new bureaucracy. Suffice it to say, Big Brother just got a whole lot bigger!

I reported last week that the Consumer Confidence Index plunged unexpectedly in June, and forecasters are still trying to figure out why the mood of the country turned so sour last month. Part of the reason is the fact that the Bush tax cuts of 2001 and 2003 are set to automatically expire at the end of this year. President Obama has said that he wants to extend the Bush tax cuts for all Americans except those households making $250,000 or more per year. Yet the legislation to extend the Bush tax cuts for all but the 'rich' is stalled in Congress, and Americans are worried that we will see the largest tax increase in history in 2011.

We will also examine in detail why raising income taxes on the 'wealthy' is bad news for small businesses and job creation, especially with our fragile economy and high unemployment. For example, do you know that two-thirds of small business profits are generated by households making over $250,000 per year? That's according to the IRS. With taxes on this group set to rise from 35% to 39.6% next year (actually to 40.8% with the phase-out of itemized deductions), it's no wonder that small business owners are reluctant to hire new workers. President Obama has yet to figure out that soaking the rich does NOT result in higher income tax revenues.

And at the end of this week's E-Letter, I will give you the results from our recent FINANCIAL LITERACY QUIZ. Over 6,000 readers took the quiz and most scored very well. Congratulations! I think you'll find the results very interesting.

During the 2008 presidential campaign, candidate Barack Obama promised that, if elected, he would press for some form of nationalized healthcare. Time after time, he assured Americans: 'If you like your healthcare plan, you can keep it; if you like your doctor, you can keep your doctor.' Many in Congress promised the same thing as they crafted the sweeping healthcare legislation that ultimately passed in March.

Yet on June 14 the Obama administration released an 83-page document which indicates that over half of all employer-provided health insurance plans will be effectively eliminated between now and 2014 because of the new healthcare law. For small businesses, it's even worse. The Obama administration's own estimates indicate that 66% or more of small businesses will abandon their healthcare insurance plans by the time ObamaCare kicks in on January 1, 2014.

This week, we will look into the many new and onerous rules, regulations and restrictions in the latest 83-page report from the Obama administration. The bottom line: If you get your health insurance through your employer, or if you are (like me) the owner of a business that provides health insurance to its employees, you need to read what follows very carefully. We've all been lied to!

A week ago today, we had several key House and Senate primary elections, and now we know most of the match-ups for the November 2 mid-term elections. We have analyzed the latest poll results since last week's primaries, and we are surprised to see just how many Democrats are likely to lose their seats this November, or are in the 'toss-up' category, and how few Republican seats are likely to be lost.

The main reason for the Democrats' dilemma is the 'anti-incumbent' fervor that is sweeping the country. And with the Dems holding large majorities in the House and Senate, they are squarely in the crosshairs of American voters who are still mad about them ramming ObamaCare down our throats. Some Republicans incumbents are in trouble too, but as the minority party, and with zero votes for ObamaCare, their losses look to be much smaller.

This week, we will summarize the latest poll results for the mid-term congressional elections using data from the independent RealClearPolitics.com to help you get a clear picture of the election trends as they stand now. This week's E-Letter should be insightful no matter which political party you support.

This week, I'm going to be discussing something that may be a bit controversial, but needs to be said. Over the span of just a few months, we have been lucky enough to escape two major terrorist attacks - one on a Northwest Airlines flight on Christmas Day, and the other in Times Square in New York on May 1. Had either of these attacks been successful, we could have seen the loss of hundreds, if not thousands of innocent American lives.

And luck is the operative word. Neither of these attempted attacks was thwarted by law enforcement but, instead, failed because of the poor execution on the part of the would-be terrorists. While the Heritage Foundation has documented 31 terrorist attacks that have been thwarted in one way or another by law enforcement, that was not the case in these last two botched attacks.

This week, I'm going to explore the uncomfortable idea of what if these attacks had been successful? How might our elected officials, the media and even the markets be different had one or both of these attacks succeeded? Then, I'll discuss the most uncomfortable question of all - what if we're not so lucky next time?