Daily Pfennig

A free, quick-reading daily e-letter on world currencies, economic trends, and the occasional baseball score.

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  • Loose Lips, Sink Ships...

    In This Issue..

    * Greek PM stops currency rally...
    * Will Fed stop mortgage buying program?
    * Aussie jobs report is strong!
    * The history of a Pfennig For Your Thoughts...

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! The monsoons are coming to the Midwest... I believe I saw the weather report for this area showing rain today and the rest of the week... I should leave my car outside, to get a 'wash'! HA!

    Well... During World War II, there was a saying, that, 'loose lips, sink ships'... I think Greek Prime Minister, George Papandreou, should have taken those words to heart yesterday... You see, the currencies, led by the beleaguered euro, were rallying, and the single unit was nearing 1.37, when Papandreou made a statement that sunk the rally's ship... He said that 'Greece's debt problems could soon spread to the rest of Europe and mean a weaker euro'...

  • The BLS Attempts A Fast One...

    In This Issue..

    * Chuck in the Wall Street Journal!
    * Feb Job losses -133,000
    * Oil pushes Petrol currencies higher...
    * Volcker believes euro to stay...

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! Was your weekend grand? The temps were below normal, but the sun filled a blue umbrella sky for most of the weekend, and for that I get a smile on my face... For those of you who don't like me going into personal stuff, and would much rather me stick to the facts, you'll want to skip ahead a few paragraphs, for I've got some very important personal stuff to talk about... If that's you... I'll see you in a bit... Otherwise, for the rest of us... Here goes!

    ...

  • Bailout Package For Greece Put On Hold...

    In This Issue..

    * Euro rally fades on latest Greek development...
    * Brazilian real rallies...
    * Canadian loonie ratchets higher...
    * Another Geithner smoking gun?

    Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! It's Tub Thumpin' because... I say so! Every day's a new day... And for someone like me that had two strikes called on me before I knew the pitch was even coming... Every day is special!

    I want to thank every one that sent along a note of good wishes, and advice to tell the people that decide that email is a good way to ruin someone's day, good riddance... I'll have more on this in the Big Finish...

    But what a day the currencies had yesterday! The euro gained ground all the way back to 1.3730 (but saw some profit taking at the end of the day) and all the other currencies followed in step... Now... There's two ways to look at this... Either the euro is like a star that's getting ready to burn out... (it always shines brightest before it burns out), or... It's like a star that had been covered up by another planet, and is coming back into view!...

  • U.S. States In Deep Trouble!

    In This Issue..

    * A long history of dollar moves...
    * Canadian GDP jumps 5%...
    * U.S. Traders didn't like the Greece package...
    * Getting out of Dodge...

    Good day... A Wonderful Wednesday to you! I hope your Tuesday was Terrific! Day one with just my little buddy Alex and me at home went off without a hitch... I took him to the jazz guitar teacher, and he sounded great! He auditions for the high school jazz band on Thursday. He'll be just a freshman, so it will be quite the uphill battle for him to make the band in his first try... But... He's so darn good!

    Well... I have to say front and center this morning, that while it may have taken the currency traders 1/2 day to realize that Australia had raised rates, to finally begin to push the A$ higher VS the green/peachback... I was beginning to think yesterday that I was going to have to have egg all over my face again, when the A$ didn't respond right away... But it was all right on the night, so it's no egg on the face for me!...

  • RBA Hikes Rates!

    In This Issue..

    * A long history of dollar moves...
    * Canadian GDP jumps 5%...
    * U.S. Traders didn't like the Greece package...
    * Getting out of Dodge...

    Good day... Well... I'm back in the saddle! And a Terrific Tuesday to you! It didn't take long for me to get the emails started telling me how wrong I am again... WOW! Of course, I wonder where these people have been the last 9 years, as when 9 years ago I was the first writer to issue a white paper calling for the long term down trend for the dollar... Or, in 2002, when everyone was writing off the euro, I wrote the white paper, 'The Year of The euro'... Or in, 2005, when everyone called for the collapse of the euro... But not me... Or, in 2008, when everyone called for the collapse of the euro... But not me...

    Is this time different? I doubt it... Lose value for 6 more months? In my opinion yes... But then returning to the underlying weak dollar trend. Look folks, if you really think that by sending me emails telling me I'm wrong, and I'm stupid, and everything else, that I'm going to change my mind on this... Then you might as well stop! Or... Start writing that great American, NOT! George Soros, and tell him how great he is......

  • A 34 Billion Euros Package For Greece!

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies trade up, then back down...
    * RBA to hike rates this week?
    * Jamie Dimon on California VS Greece...
    * Fannie needs another $15 Billion!

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! And Welcome to March! My fave month! Yes, it's me this morning... You were under the impression that it would be Chris this morning, and back to me tomorrow... But here I am... I'll rock you like a hurricane! HA! Chris had some fatherly duties this morning, so I took the conn back one day early... I'll still rest today after a long, difficult week last week in Scottsdale, and will be back in the saddle tomorrow, as planned.

    Well... What have we here? News broke on this past Saturday, that a package of 30 Billion euros was going to be provided to Greece from German and French state banks, and investors... The amount then turned to $34 Billion... Now... You know me... And I'm not in favor of 'bail outs'... Throwing good money at bad... And all that, but... This looks like it's what the markets wanted to see, for the currencies, especially the higher yielding currencies are receiving a bias to buy this morning...

    ...

  • Roller coaster ride for the dollar...

    In This Issue..
    * Bernanke sees rates remaining low...
    * Greece continues to weigh on the euro...
    * Yen climbs vs euro...
    * India's economy expands...

    Good day... We finally got a bit of the volatility we've been looking for yesterday, as the markets moved dramatically as the Fed Chief testified before congress. But overnight the Asians had a different opinion and moved the dollar back up. So the currency markets were pretty much like a roller coaster ride, moving dramatically up and down but ending up pretty much right back where we started. I'll begin where we left off yesterday, the Fed Chairman's testimony to the House Financial Services committee.

    As we expected, the Fed Chairman told the committee members that Fed will keep interest rates near record low levels for several more months as the 'nascent' recovery remains fragile. The dollar immediately sold off as currency traders who had bet on an early jump in US interest rates reversed their dollar long positions. But in taking a page right out of Greenspan's book, Bernanke tried his best to play to both sides of the House, saying that 'Private final demand does seem to be growing at a moderate pace....' and telling the congressmen that the Fed will need to start tightening policy 'at some point'....

  • The tight ranges continue...

    In This Issue..

    * Dollar drifts higher...
    * Bernanke to testify...
    * Commodity currencies battle back...
    * David Galland on NABE's growth predictions...

    Good day... And a welcome to a Wonderful Wednesday! Chuck is headed down to sunny Scottsdale today, so I will have the con on the Pfennig for the rest of the week. Hopefully the markets will provide me some pfodder for the pfennig, as it can be a struggle to find things to write about when the markets aren't moving much.

    That has been the case with the currency markets over the past few days, as the dollar has been trading in a fairly tight range. It felt like the dollar had the possibility to break out of this range yesterday, as we got a couple of different reports which looked to push the dollar higher...

  • A Change Of Heart?

    In This Issue..
    * Very Tight trading ranges...
    * Gold and loonies are cheaper today...
    * What are these guys thinking?
    * China not 'ideal' to buy gold?

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! Well... Here we are this morning, the currencies have basically remained stalled, with only the 'higher yielders' making any headway, albeit small headway.

    The non-dollar currencies saw a bit of selling yesterday morning, after I signed off, but have rebounded, like I said, a bit in the overnight markets. There's a feeling among us here on the trading desk that we're about to break out here... It's either going to be a break out to the high side or the low side... But I doubt that we're going to remain in these tight ranges for too much longer. But, that's just my opinion, of course, I could be wrong!...

  • Japanese Investment Trusts To Buy A$'s?

    In This Issue..
    * Currencies recover from Discount rate hike...
    * Gold recovers too...
    * An idea for Greece...
    * Loonies fueled by Oil and Gold...

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! Happy Birthday George Washington! One of my fave past Presidents for sure! And I'm so excited about this, it can't wait until the last paragraph... How about that U.S. Men's Hockey VS Canada game last night? WOW! I had a reader ask me a couple of months ago why I didn't mention the U.S. Under 20 men's hockey Championship, which came against Canada... So there, hopefully I made up for that missing comment!

    Well... Front and Center this morning... Let's start with this... Consumer prices rose 0.2% in January, equaling the increases in December and November. Market expectations going into the report had been for a slightly larger 0.3% rise. Core prices surprisingly fell 0.1% in January following the 0.1% rise recorded in December and the flat reading in November. On a year-over-year basis, the overall CPI index rose 2.6% in December....

  • Fed Raises Discount Rate!

    In This Issue..

    * Rate hike sends currencies to the woodshed...
    * Gold recovers then sells off!
    * The tale of two Americas...
    * Weekly Jobless Claims Jump!

    Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! A Fantastico Friday, if... You were looking for the Fed to raise the Discount Rate yesterday afternoon! If you weren't... Like me... Well then, we're going to have to work at making this a Fantastico Friday!

    So... Front and Center this morning... I'm sure you all heard that the Fed, in a surprise move, raised their discount rate 1/4 point to .75%... This really put the currency guys in a tizzy, and they began to earnestly buy dollars the rest of the day... They went at it hard, and didn't stop until the euro was sitting around 1.3475......

  • It Was a Risk Off Day!

    In This Issue..

    * Risk aversion sets in again...
    * IMF sends Gold to the woodshed...
    * Ron Paul chimes in...
    * U.S. data all prints good...

    Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! How are you today? You know, I was thinking about that yesterday... I tend to tell you quite a bit how I'm doing, but I fail to ask you how you're doing... Heard one of my all-time fave songs on the way to work today, which put a smile on my face, and of course led me to sing-along! Oh! The name of the song? Mellissa - by the Allman Brothers...

    Well, front and center this morning, we had the entire day and a half rally in the risk assets completely erased, wiped out, and reversed yesterday... Recall, that I told you in the morning that the euro had lost about 1/4-cent while I was writing... Well, it held to near 1.37 until about mid morning, and then the trap door was sprung, and the euro went falling through the 1.37, and 1.36 floors!...

  • Risk Returns This Week...

    In This Issue..

    * Risk assets remain well bid overnight...
    * RBA Gov. Stevens talks hawkish about rates...
    * China reduces Treasury purchases for 5th straight month...
    * Brazil outperforms its BRIC colleagues!

    Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! WOW! Thanks so much for all the kind words sent along regarding the jazz bank performance... That sure is nice to know of all the very kind people / readers out there! Of course, I already knew that 3 years ago, when it was announced that I had cancer...

    OK... Front and Center this morning, we saw quite the rally in risk assets yesterday, all day, and all night! It was like the sea parted, the stars aligned, and the karma began to flow... The global economic recoveries came back into the thoughts of traders and investors, and the fears of Greece waned... It was as if none of the 'sky if falling' theatrics had gone on the past month!...

  • German Investor Confidence Declines...

    In This Issue..

    * Risk makes a comeback... At least today!
    * ZEW / German Confidence slips 5th consecutive month...
    * Something scary at the Treasury auction...
    * Popping the ego bubble...

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! Thanks to all who sent along their thanks for my Valentine's Day Special Pfennig... It's not what I wanted to send you, but what I had to do, to properly inform you of what's going on... You know, I've been accused by more than a few people over the years as being a cheerleader for the currencies, and doing nothing but reporting bad news for the dollar to promote the currency business here at EverBank.

    You know... If all I ever report is bad news, then maybe that's all there is! But... I've fought those things for years, and this is but one more time, that I've warned about something regarding currency values......

  • Eurozone Economy Stumbles, Fumbles...

    In This Issue..

    * Euro gets sold on weak data...
    * China tries to slowdown again...
    * A$'s get slapped on the China slowdown attempt...
    * Retail sales & confidence print today...

    Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! A Fabulous Friday, in hopes of becoming a Fantastico Friday! It is a 3-day weekend, and we get paid today, so there are some good steps toward Fantastico... Alex's Fox "gig" went great, he stood up, strong and tall, and ripped off a smokin' guitar solo that lasted about 1-2 minutes... But, it was a very late night for yours truly, and so I'm draggin' the line this morning...

    Front and Center this morning, the non-dollar currencies led by the euro, are sliding against the dollar... Yesterday, the currencies range traded all day, and in the overnight Asian session that pattern remained tight... But in the European session this morning, as Economic growth in the euro zone slowed in the fourth quarter of 2009, as only one of the currency area's four largest economies expanded....
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