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  • 'Unusually Uncertain' times…

    In This Issue..

    * 'Unusually Uncertain' times push the $ lower...
    * European data show further strength...
    * Goldman economists need a vacation...
    * China to unveil the 'secret sauce'???

    Good day. Another busy day here at EverBank yesterday, but today promises to be a bit of a break. All of our visitors left late yesterday afternoon, and the systems which I have been testing are down for the next few days. The weather also looks like it has finally calmed down a bit after Thunderstorms rolled through again yesterday afternoon. The markets probably won't calm down, as we have a plethora of data releases today along with further testimony from Bernanke and the release of the European stress tests....

  • Risk Assets Rally!

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies have strong rally VS the dollar...
    * Gold returns to $1,210...
    * Rosengren talks deflation...
    * Aussie Confidence soars!

    Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! WOW! The National League won for the first time since the Wizard of OZ (Ozzie Smith) played in 1996! Being a National League guy, I grew up watching the National League win these games every year, but that changed and it's been an American League affair for some time. But not this year! YAHOO!

    Another Big WOW! Goes to the currencies and metals yesterday! What a rally! The currencies, led by the Big Dog euro, left the porch and chased the dollar dog down the street all day! The euro returned to the 1.27 handle, moving through the 1.26 handle like a hot knife goes through butter! By the time I made it into the office from the doctor's office yesterday morning, the damage to the dollar was a done deal... Last night, before I went to bed, I checked the currencies just to see if there had been profit taking in Asia... And what to my surprise did I see? But no profit taking, what glee!

    ...

  • Central Banks Diversify...

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies soften VS the dollar...
    * Another look at Canadian job data...
    * China has Super month of exports!
    * Yen gets rocked by Upper House election...

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! Congratulations to Spain... The fiesta is on in Spain, as their football (soccer to us) team won the World Cup yesterday. Personally, I think Holland, got the bad end of the stick on two calls that would have turned that game their way. But, it was not to be, and Spain hoisted the cup!

    OK... Well, thanks to Chris for taking over the Pfennig on Friday. I was busy with other things for the day. I sent a note to Chris Friday morning about the Canadian Job report, and he replied that he had already written about it! WOW! Quick on the draw! He beat me to the punch... But, the report was so good it's worth talking about some more! Canadian employment skyrocketed again in June rising by 93,200, almost four times the amount expected by forecasters (+20,000). Add this to the 133,000 jobs created in April/May And you've got the ingredients for a strong quarter of job creation! The unemployment rate fell back to 7.9%, lower than forecasts for an 8.1% print.

    ...

  • Employment Disappoints...

    In This Issue..

    * Fundamentals creep back into markets...
    * Dollar gets sold...
    * RBA keeps rates unchanged...
    * U.K. makes right moves...

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! Did you have a grand Independence Day Holiday Weekend? I sure did! I got to see two ballgames, one very bad, one good. Spend time with the kids, friends, and relax a little... WOW! Now that I think of it, the weekend was more grand than I first thought!

    The currencies traded yesterday, but in very tight ranges, as the U.S. was on holiday. This morning, the bias is to sell dollars, much like it was on Friday before the liquidity of Europe went to the pubs... Let's go back now, and revisit Friday's action...

    Well... More proof that the double dip is coming on Friday......

  • G-20, Schmee 20!

    In This Issue..

    * No clear direction from G-20...
    * A bias to sell dollars this morning...
    * Those guys are wrong, and I'm right!
    * Riksbank to hike rates this week?

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! A weekend that feels like it went by in a flash! WOW! Don't know how that happened, but it did... This coming weekend will be a 3-day Holiday weekend, so hopefully that 'went by in a flash' feeling doesn't repeat itself!

    Well... This past weekend was the G-20 meeting, and the anticipated brawl between the U.S. and Germany on spending VS cost cutting... Well, the brawl didn't happen, instead they agreed to say that they will 'tackle deficits once economic recoveries are assured'... Which here in the U.S. means... NEVER! Not that the economic recovery won't eventually come along, but that our lawmakers aren't going to stop spending... However, there are elections that might just change their minds, eh?

    ...

  • The Wolves Are Always At The Door!

    In This Issue..

    * Euro rally falls on its face!
    * Dollars, yen, and Gold highlight the day...
    * More on the ratings agencies...
    * What, me worry about inflation?

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! It's rainy and cold here in St. Louis... Not exactly 'May weather'... But then, you've got to experience this kind of weather, to enjoy the blue umbrella skies, and sunshine, warm days!

    Well... The sunshine for the euro only lasted about 12 hours... Yesterday, when I signed off, I said that the euro had come back from 1.3094 to 1.30, and we would need to see what the NY boys and girls thought of the aid package to get a clear direction for the euro... Well, the NY boys and girls didn't think much of the aid package, and their feelings were soon to show up in the currency trading... Almost all of the euro's gains, and those of the other currencies affected by the Eurozone problems, were wiped out... Completely! The euro is now trading lower than it was when we left for happy hour on Friday afternoon! UGH! But... Shoot Rudy, I said yesterday, that while I liked the package for its calming affect on the markets, I didn't like it for the debt... Well, the calming affect is gone, so we're left with debt......

  • US data comes in stronger than expected...

    In This Issue..

    * US data comes in stronger than expected...
    * Worries over Greece pushes dollar higher...
    * China grows at 11.9%...
    * Australia may look to pause?...

    Good day, it is tax day which is not usually a happy day for the 51% of the folks who have to pay the taxman. Chuck would take the opportunity to break into the Beatles song right now, but I'm not as good with lyrics, so you will just have to hum it in your head. The dollar was down in trading yesterday, as most of the data released was positive and emboldened traders to move money out of safe havens. But overnight the Asian markets decided to take the dollar higher, and the Europeans are continuing to buy greenbacks. I'll get to what caused the big change in a second, but first I will review all of the data we got yesterday morning....

  • US Dollar drifts, waiting for direction...

    In This Issue..

    * Dollar drifts waiting for direction...
    * How to profit from China's next move...
    * Brazil's real predicted to rise 10%...
    * An update from Chuck...

    Good day, and welcome to Tuesday. The Cardinals brought home a winner for the huge crowds down at Busch Stadium yesterday. As I mentioned, opening day is holiday around St. Louis, and Albert Pujols and his teammates gave the fans a terrific show. Currency traders seemed to take the day off yesterday along with thousands of Cardinal fans. The dollar drifted through the day, and continued to trade sideways in overnight trading in Asia....

  • US$ stuck in a rut...

    In This Issue..

    * US$ stuck in a rut...
    * Australia is rising star...
    * BOE keeps rates on hold...
    * Frank reflects on Olympic boycott...

    Good day, and welcome to Friday!  The dollar kept within the fairly tight range it has established over the past few weeks.  The dollar index has remained between 81 and 82 for the past 15 days, after jumping higher on the Greek financial crisis.  Currency traders are uncertain of where the global economy is heading, and seem to be taking a 'wait and see' approach.  Eventually a clear picture will start to emerge, but for now, the currency markets are stuck in a rut.

    The weekly jobs data released yesterday morning didn't give investors much to go on.  The numbers came in slightly higher than expected, surprising many who thought the improvement we saw in the monthly numbers at the end of last week would carry over to the weekly report.  But it still looks like any improvement in the labor picture here in the US will be slow to come, and pretty sporadic.  The Labor Department blamed the Easter holiday for skewing the numbers, saying the two weeks around the Holiday weekend are traditionally volatile making it difficult to discern an underlying trend.  But the less volatile 4 week moving average of claims, a less volatile measure, also increased to 450,250 last week from 448,000.

    ...

  • Investor concern causes a move back to dollars...

    In This Issue..

    * Investor concern causes a move back to dollars...
    * UK elections weigh on the pound...
    * The loonie can't keep the buck...
    * Jim Rogers mirrors Chuck's thoughts...

    Good day, the dollar moved higher throughout the trading day, and the rally continued in overnight trading. Just about all of the major currencies were down, with the Singapore dollar and Japanese yen the only two which saw a positive return vs. the greenback. This would indicate Wednesday was a 'risk off' day, as investors moved money out of higher yielding currencies and back to the carry trade funding favorites of the yen and US$....

  • A down day for the dollar...

    In This Issue..

    * Jobs disappoint...
    * Factory orders hold up...
    * Franc rises to record against euro...
    * Another feather in the hat for Canada...

    Good day and a Terrific Thursday to you...Its always nice to flip the calendar over to April each year, because in my book at least, this is the unofficial start of spring. We were greeted with a picture perfect day yesterday and today should be even better here in St. Louis. There's just a lot to be said about walking outside without a coat, seeing everything turning green, and hearing the birds chirp. Both Chuck and Chris and out today so I have the honor of bringing you today's Pfennig. Since I don't have any jokes to share with you on this April Fools Day, I'll get right to the meat and potatoes (which is probably a good thing since my joke telling abilities aren't exactly at par.)

    ...

  • Confidence sends the dollar lower...

    In This Issue..

    * Confidence sends the dollar lower...
    * Good data for the US boosts Mexico and Canada...
    * The Fed exits stage left...
    * Pound rallies, but don't be fooled...

    Good day, only two more days left in March, and April brings Chuck back to the desk. The dollar bears returned to the markets yesterday as most every currency moved higher versus the dollar.

    Confident investors kept the dollar on the run yesterday as they went shopping for yield. The commodity currencies ruled the day again, with Australia, Norway, and Brazil's currencies all posting gains nearing 1.5% vs. the US$. Greece successfully sold 5 billion euros worth of bonds in the first sale since the EU reached agreement on a stability plan. The sale emboldened investors who moved funds out of their 'safe haven' parking spots in the Japanese yen and US dollar. It seems we are back to the risk on / risk off trading pattern which dominated the currency markets over the past year. Good news for the US or global economy means bad news for the safe havens of the US$ and yen, while the opposite occurs whenever the global recovery is called into question....

  • Confident investors move dollar lower...

    In This Issue..

    * Confident investors move dollar lower...
    * US consumers start spending again (is this really what we need?)...
    * Aussie dollar and kiwi move higher...
    * Gold and Silver move higher on the weaker dollar...

    Good day, and welcome to the last Monday of March. The countdown to Cardinal opening day has begun, which means Chuck will be heading back home shortly. Investors headed back into the currency markets Friday feeling more confident in the global recovery after US GDP for the 4th quarter of 2009 held at 5.6%. The combination of good US growth, a possible solution to the Greek debt crisis, and the passage of Obama's healthcare overhaul had investors almost giddy as they put money back to work in the markets....

  • Germany's Merkel gets her way...

    In This Issue..

    * Germany's Merkel gets her way...
    * Confidence in the US ebbs lower...
    * China to stick to renminbi policy...
    * Gold stops sliding...

    Good day, we had another strong day for the dollar yesterday, with the greenback gaining against all of the majors. But overnight, the Asians and then the Europeans sold the dollar and moved money back into the currencies. So after another rollercoaster ride, we are basically right back where we were at this time yesterday morning. These volatile markets are likely to continue, as investors try to figure out if the global economy will recover or if we will slide back into recession. With all of this uncertainty, you would think investors would be moving into 'hard assets': Gold and Silver. But the markets for these two precious metals have been surprisingly quiet this year. More on the metals a bit later, first I will try to figure out these currency markets....

  • U.S. States In Deep Trouble!

    In This Issue..

    * A long history of dollar moves...
    * Canadian GDP jumps 5%...
    * U.S. Traders didn't like the Greece package...
    * Getting out of Dodge...

    Good day... A Wonderful Wednesday to you! I hope your Tuesday was Terrific! Day one with just my little buddy Alex and me at home went off without a hitch... I took him to the jazz guitar teacher, and he sounded great! He auditions for the high school jazz band on Thursday. He'll be just a freshman, so it will be quite the uphill battle for him to make the band in his first try... But... He's so darn good!

    Well... I have to say front and center this morning, that while it may have taken the currency traders 1/2 day to realize that Australia had raised rates, to finally begin to push the A$ higher VS the green/peachback... I was beginning to think yesterday that I was going to have to have egg all over my face again, when the A$ didn't respond right away... But it was all right on the night, so it's no egg on the face for me!...
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