Investor Blogs

* The dollar bounces! * ISM was simply awful! * Oil rallies... * Jobs Jamboree this Friday... ** The Obama Bounce Begins... Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! A weekend of football! And there's more this week with the College National Championship Game on Thursday, and then more playoff games next weekend. Crazy time of year for the sport, for sure! So... The Christmas Tree decorations came off yesterday, along with some of the house decorations. My beautiful bride doesn't like to leave that stuff up for long, but for me, I would leave it up all year long! Well... Although, technically, it's still the Christmas season (it doesn't end until Jan. 11), the Santa rally that pushed the euro to 1.45, has gone away, and we're on to the next phase, which I drew out for you over a week ago... And that is... The Obama bounce... This is something we'll have to deal with for the next few months. It all began with a huge stock rally on Friday, and that won't be the last one during the Obama bounce....

This week we look at a very interesting, if not altogether encouraging, piece of research on the length and severity of recessions that come during periods of financial crisis, which can apply to not just the US but all countries that are involved in the current crisis. But being forewarned is better than blindly stumbling through, so we will take some time to peruse it. Then we (briefly) look at the depth of the manufacturing numbers in the US, which leads us into the recent bout of earnings downgrades and some thoughts as to where that might suggest the market is going. That should be enough for this week....

* Currencies range trade... * With a bias to buy dollars... * Recession deepens in Eurozone... * India cuts rates... ** A New Year! Good day... Happy New Year! And a Happy Friday to one and all! A Fantastico Friday, I bet it will be, as most people are still on "holiday". I hope your New Year's celebration went well, mine did, spent with good friends, after a simply scrumptious dinner! Yesterday, we spent the day with friends again, as good friend Rick, had everyone and their brother to his new house to celebrate the New Year... I'm worn out! Good thing this is a quick shot work day, and then onto the weekend, because I'm spent! Well, enough of all that! The currencies traded in a very tight range on Wednesday, and I expect more of that today. The bias has been to buy dollars going into the year-end, and it looks as though that might be the case today, as there's been no data to speak of in the U.S., while the Eurozone printed a very weak manufacturing index report, indicating that the Eurozone's recession is deepening. Of course if we compared apples to apples the bias would be to buy euros, but since there hasn't been any "real" economic data in a couple of days from the U.S. this report from the Eurozone gets all the attention....

The market provided a merciful end to an abysmal year -- the worst since the Great Depression, wiping out $6.9 trillion in stock market wealth. The Dow rose 108.00, or 1.25 percent, to 8,776.39. The S&P 500 gained 12.61, or 1.42 percent, to 903.25...

As we draw a much welcomed close on the year 2008 tomorrow, it makes sense to review what will certainly be one of the most significant years in our nation's history. I am on vacation this week, but I have reprinted two very interesting articles that reflect on what we have witnessed this year and what it may mean for the future. I trust they will make you stop and think. I'll be back to my usual writing schedule next week. I wish a very Happy New Year to you and yours!...

* Euro gains, then loses, then gains... * Inflation and Commodities... * The euro turns 10! * Risk Aversion remains but is waning... ** Wild Swings! Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! Well, it happened way too late for yours truly to witness it, but my beloved Missouri Tigers rallied and won the Alamo Bowl in overtime. Go Tigers! Hopefully they can fix the defense before next fall! OK... Remember those Wild Swings I talked about yesterday? The Wild Swings that could be a result of thin volumes in this the second week of Christmas. Well... We witnessed them in earnest yesterday! As I signed off yesterday, I told you that the euro had rallied 2 whole figures to 1.43 and change. Well, that rally dissipated throughout the morning, and by late in the day the single unit was 1.39 and change... WOW! Now that's a Wild Swing! You can point to profit taking as the reason for the move, and with the volumes thinned out by Holiday trading, one profit taking sell begot another, and before you knew it, the euro was looking at a loss on the day....

This week I have a special Outside the Box for you. My long-time friend Doug Casey wrote a very prescient piece back in 1997. He has updated it somewhat for today's times. The critical part is a summary of the work of Richard Strauss and (friend) John Howe and their book The Fourth Turning, which I consider one of the more important and prescient (that word again) books of the last 25 years. It should still be read today. It is seminal to understanding the times we live in. Doug summarized the book and makes some observations based on that understanding, many of which turned out to be true and some of which may well be in out future. I think you will find this to be very useful and enlightening if you are not familiar with their work, and a great review if you are....

The market retreated Monday as continuing violence in the Middle East and a resulting jump in oil prices reminded investors that the market could face problems beyond the recession. The Dow fell 31.62, or 0.37 percent, to 8,483.93. The S&P 500 fell...